Bayesian seismic hazard analysis

J. P. Wang, Chia Ying Sung, Su Chin Chang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review


The Bayesian approach aims to obtain an inference utilizing indirect data as the prior information and direct data (or samples) as the observation. This paper presents a new Bayesian approach to estimate the annual rate of PGA exceedance (or SA: spectral acceleration), based on several sources of indirect data (e.g., ground motion prediction equations, seismic source models, and earthquake catalogs) and the directly recorded PGA data. In addition to the methodology, three case studies in Taiwan were also conducted. Like other Bayesian calculations, the case studies show that the Bayesian estimate is in between the estimate sorely based on the indirect data and the estimate sorely based on the PGA records (direct data), demonstrating the new Bayesian approach for estimating the annual rate of PGA exceedance (also known as seismic hazard) is fundamentally robust.

Original languageEnglish
Article number265
JournalBulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
Issue number7
StatePublished - Jul 2022


  • Annual rate of PGA exceedance
  • Bayesian approach
  • Indirect data
  • PGA records


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