Assessment of seismic hazard associated with the Meishan fault in Central Taiwan

Jui Pin Wang, Duruo Huang, Su Chin Chang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

12 Scopus citations

Abstract

According to the Central Geological Survey Taiwan (CGST), the Meishan fault in Central Taiwan, which induced a catastrophic earthquake in 1906, is considered capable of triggering equivalent events with a return period of 162 years. Therefore, as the next event is expected around 2070, the Meishan fault poses a high level of earthquake risk in Central Taiwan, especially for those cities and townships very close to the fault. However, the best-estimate return period (162 years) and earthquake magnitude (7.1 M L) reported by the CGST must be subject to some uncertainty, because such an event is very unlikely to recur every 162 years. Therefore, this study carried out a series of seismic hazard assessments for three major cities close to the Meishan fault, with the uncertainty of the best-estimate information being determined using the Rosenblueth algorithm. The results show that for Chaiyi city, which the Meishan fault passes through, the probability of the current design value (i.e., PGA = 0.33 g) being exceeded by the earthquake motion induced by the Meishan fault in the next 50 years would be as high as 55 %. Therefore, further studies should be carried out to obtain a better understanding of the Meishan fault, to develop a robust hazard mitigation plan for nearby cities.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)249-256
Number of pages8
JournalBulletin of Engineering Geology and the Environment
Volume72
Issue number2
DOIs
StatePublished - Jun 2013

Keywords

  • Meishan fault in Central Taiwan
  • Probabilistic approach
  • Seismic hazard
  • Uncertainty

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