This paper presents a new application of the Bayesian approach to objectively determine logic-tree weights for ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used in seismic hazard analysis. This is a considerable improvement over the current practice based on subjective judgment to determine the logic-tree weights for GMPEs. To demonstrate the feasibility of this Bayesian application, case studies at three sites in Taiwan were conducted. The results demonstrate that the logic-tree weights for three Next Generation Attenuation GMPEs can be determined in an objective and repeatable manner using this Bayesian calculation, which is based on the difference between predicted and observed peak ground accelerations.
- Bayesian approach
- Ground motion prediction equation
- Logic-tree weight