Application of Bayesian calculation to determine logic-tree weights for ground motion prediction equations: Seismological case studies in Taiwan

J. P. Wang, Yen Hui Lin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

This paper presents a new application of the Bayesian approach to objectively determine logic-tree weights for ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) used in seismic hazard analysis. This is a considerable improvement over the current practice based on subjective judgment to determine the logic-tree weights for GMPEs. To demonstrate the feasibility of this Bayesian application, case studies at three sites in Taiwan were conducted. The results demonstrate that the logic-tree weights for three Next Generation Attenuation GMPEs can be determined in an objective and repeatable manner using this Bayesian calculation, which is based on the difference between predicted and observed peak ground accelerations.

Original languageEnglish
Article number106347
JournalEngineering Geology
Volume294
DOIs
StatePublished - 5 Dec 2021

Keywords

  • Bayesian approach
  • Ground motion prediction equation
  • Logic-tree weight

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