A suitable model that enables the analysis of dynamic relationships between transport systems is important for managers to make real-time reaction strategies. This study proposes an autoregressive distributed lag modeling approach that can point a way to interpret the long- and short-term relationships between intercity transport systems. To test the applicability of the approach with regard to evaluating the dynamic competitive relationships between intercity transport systems, an empirical study sample is adopted in evaluating competition between high-speed rail (HSR) and intercity bus services. The results indicate that HSR has a long-run impact on intercity bus transport and the intercity bus transport market is positively affected by its previous operations and negatively influenced by the previous performance of HSR. However, in the short-run, the current period performance of HSR positively affects the intercity bus transport market.
- autoregressive distributed lag model
- bus transport
- dynamic competitive relationship
- high-speed rail
- Intercity transport system