An efficient method to compute the failure probability

Wenping Gong, C. Hsein Juang, James R. Martin, Jie Zhang

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

This paper presents an efficient method to compute the failure probability of a geotechnical system, which is based upon numerical integration of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) of the performance function. This new method is inspired by the concept of the vertex method often used in conjunction with fuzzy sets theory; however, new approach is taken to account for the probabilistic feature of the uncertain input parameters. In the new method, only the deterministic analysis of the system performance and the evaluation of the joint probability of the uncertain input parameters are required. The proposed new method is a deterministic approach, easy to follow and apply; no Monte Carlo simulation is required. Through an example study of a shallow strip foundation, the effectiveness and the efficiency of the proposed new method, in terms of the accuracy and the computational effort, respectively, are demonstrated.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publication12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015
PublisherUniversity of British Columbia
ISBN (Electronic)9780888652454
StatePublished - 2015
Event12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2012 - Vancouver, Canada
Duration: 12 Jul 201515 Jul 2015

Publication series

Name12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2015

Conference

Conference12th International Conference on Applications of Statistics and Probability in Civil Engineering, ICASP 2012
Country/TerritoryCanada
CityVancouver
Period12/07/1515/07/15

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