A Web-based political exchange for election outcome predictions

Sun Chong Wang, Kuang Ping Liu, Ching Yun Yu, Sai Ping Li

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

4 Scopus citations

Abstract

Prices form in a free market by the interaction of supply and demand. In a highly competitive industry, prices fluctuate. An exchange market provides an arena for investors to exercise speculative opportunities based on their perception of price movements. We describe an online exchange where political futures contracts are traded. In the design, the liquidation value of a share of political futures contract is determined by the percentage of votes received by a candidate in the election. Such a political exchange was run during Taiwan's general election campaign in March, 2004. A feature of the experimentation is that money is fictitious in the trading. We devised ways to introduce incentives. We report predictions by the exchange that outperform conventional polls.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationProceedings - IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence, WI 2004
EditorsN. Zhong, H. Tirri, Y. Yao, L. Zhou
Pages173-178
Number of pages6
StatePublished - 2004
EventProceedings - IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence, WI 2004 - Beijing, China
Duration: 20 Sep 200424 Sep 2004

Publication series

NameProceedings - IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence, WI 2004

Conference

ConferenceProceedings - IEEE/WIC/ACM International Conference on Web Intelligence, WI 2004
Country/TerritoryChina
CityBeijing
Period20/09/0424/09/04

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