A new procedure to best-fit earthquake magnitude probability distributions: Including an example for Taiwan

J. P. Wang, Yih Min Wu, Duruo Huang, Su Chin Chang

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

3 Scopus citations

Abstract

Since the year 1973, more than 54,000 M w ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude-frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire-Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake's magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan.

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)837-850
Number of pages14
JournalNatural Hazards
Volume71
Issue number1
DOIs
StatePublished - Mar 2014

Keywords

  • b value
  • Earthquake magnitude probability
  • Optimization
  • Taiwan

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