## Abstract

Since the year 1973, more than 54,000 M _{w} ≥ 3.0 earthquakes have occurred around Taiwan, and their magnitude-frequency relationship was found following with the Gutenberg-Richter recurrence law with b value equal to 0.923 from the least-square calculation. However, using this b value with the McGuire-Arabasz algorithm results in some disagreement between observations and expectations in magnitude probability. This study introduces a simple approach to optimize the b value for better modeling of the magnitude probability, and its effectiveness is demonstrated in this paper. The result shows that the optimal b value can better model the observed magnitude distribution, compared with two customary methods. For example, given magnitude threshold = 5.0 and maximum magnitude = 8.0, the optimal b value of 0.835 is better than 0.923 from the least-square calculation and 0.913 from maximum likelihood estimation for simulating the earthquake's magnitude probability distribution around Taiwan.

Original language | English |
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Pages (from-to) | 837-850 |

Number of pages | 14 |

Journal | Natural Hazards |

Volume | 71 |

Issue number | 1 |

DOIs | |

State | Published - Mar 2014 |

## Keywords

- b value
- Earthquake magnitude probability
- Optimization
- Taiwan