A NEW APPROACH FOR MODELING EARTHQUAKE MAGNITUDE PROBABILITY DISTRIBUTION

Min Hao Wu, Jui Pin Wang, Jieh Haur Chen, Yan Hui Lin

Research output: Contribution to journalArticlepeer-review

Abstract

For obtaining the (theoretical) earthquake magnitude probability distribution, the McGuire-Arabasz equation is commonly used with the b-value calibrated from the Gutenberg-Richter relationship. In this paper, we propose a new method, also based on the McGuire-Arabasz equation, while using the b-value directly calibrated from the observed magnitude probability distribution. We examined the new method with 149,879 earthquakes from five regions, and all of the tests show that the new approach outperforms the current method for modeling the observed magnitude probability distributions. More importantly, the new approach is as easy to use as the current method, with the optimization computation that can be easily completed by Excel Solver

Original languageEnglish
Pages (from-to)145-154
Number of pages10
JournalJournal of GeoEngineering
Volume16
Issue number4
DOIs
StatePublished - Dec 2021

Keywords

  • Earthquake magnitude probability distribution
  • Optimization
  • Statistical tests

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