The global model FV3GFS is used to simulate Typhoon Lekima (2019), which exhibited track deflection when approaching west-northwestward toward Taiwan. The model successfully simulates the observed northward deflection and the track deflection is produced by topographically induced wavenumber-1 flow with a pair of vorticity gyres around the typhoon center. The gyres tend to rotate counterclockwise about the typhoon center and thus induce an earlier northward and then westward movement. Azimuthal-mean kinetic energy budget of the typhoon indicates that the effect of Taiwan terrain modifies the correlation between the recirculating flow and pressure gradient force east of Taiwan, leading to a slight weakening of the typhoon during the later track deflection. The northward cyclonic deflection in general will be induced for a cyclone to move toward the central to northern terrain such as Lekima. The curvature of the northward cyclonic deflection, however, is large (small) for a northwestbound (nearly westbound) vortex depending on the track-topography-impinging angle. The curvature difference can be explained with the concept of recirculating flow, which is the flow splitting due to topography and rejoins the vortex to produce the wavenumber-1 asymmetry. The cyclonic track curvature of the northwestbound Lekima is larger than that of the westbound Maria (2018) in the FV3GFS simulations. This adds robustness to the conclusion that minor to moderate terrain-related track deflections can be well simulated by the FV3GFS global model near Taiwan.
- Idealized models
- Numerical analysis/modeling
- Numerical weather prediction/forecasting