A Bayesian approach to estimate the probability distribution of earthquake size of a given active fault

Research output: Chapter in Book/Report/Conference proceedingConference contributionpeer-review

Abstract

Different from conventional methods, the Bayesian approach is a unique algorithm to develop an estimate considering both the prior information and limited samples. Implicitly, the Bayesian calculation is usually employed on a condition that the observation data are too limited to develop a reliable estimate. This paper presents a Bayesian application to earthquake engineering to estimate the size of recurring earthquakes induced by the Meishan fault in centralTaiwan.With the prior information including best-estimate rupture width, rupture area, and two empirical models, and with one only earthquake observation in year 1906, the Bayesian calculation suggests that the size of recurring Meishan earthquake should be in Mw 6.48±0.21.

Original languageEnglish
Title of host publicationComputer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics - Proc. of the 14th International Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, IACMAG 2014
PublisherTaylor and Francis - Balkema
Pages869-874
Number of pages6
ISBN (Print)9781138001480
DOIs
StatePublished - 2015
Event14th International Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, IACMAG 2014 - Kyoto, Japan
Duration: 22 Sep 201425 Sep 2014

Publication series

NameComputer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics - Proceedings of the 14th Int. Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, IACMAG 2014

Conference

Conference14th International Conference of International Association for Computer Methods and Recent Advances in Geomechanics, IACMAG 2014
Country/TerritoryJapan
CityKyoto
Period22/09/1425/09/14

Fingerprint

Dive into the research topics of 'A Bayesian approach to estimate the probability distribution of earthquake size of a given active fault'. Together they form a unique fingerprint.

Cite this