Monte Carlo Model for the Risk Assessment of the Off-Shore Wind Farms in the Western Coast of Taiwan

Typhoon is the most frequent and devastating natural disaster for Taiwan. This study integrates a Monte Carlo model and a parametric wind field model to simulate the tracks and wind speeds of landfall typhoons in Taiwan. The Monte Carlo model is based on the historical data of the moving speed, direction and central pressure of typhoons between 1970~2016, collected by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) of the US. The percentages of the simulated tracks of typhoons will be compared with the observed typhoon tracks of the Central Weather Bureau (CWB) of Taiwan. Then the wind speeds of typhoons will be predicted by the parametric model of Holland (1980), and compare with the observed wind speeds near the western coast of Taiwan. This model can be used to compute the probability of extreme wind speeds and to assess the wind-damage risk of off-shore wind farms and other structures in Taiwan.