氣候變遷下台灣的乾旱風險評估(2/3)

Drought is one of the natural disasters that can result in nationwide water shortage, crop failure, human life casualty and impacts on the environment and ecosystems. It is typically triggered by deficit of rainfall as well as its associated fluctuations in environmental factors such as rainfall, temperature, and evapotranspiration. In Taiwan, drought occurrence has become more frequent in recent years and is projected to occur more severely in the context of climate change. In this project, we propose a 3-year plan (August 1st, 2021-July 31st, 2024) with the aim to comprehensively assess the drought risk by considering influential factors distributed in the social, environmental, and economic domains by integrating the advantages of Geographic Information System (GIS), Multiple Criteria Decision Making (MCDM), and machine learning (ML) technologies. In the first year (August 1st, 2021-July 31st, 2022), the main tasks are to develop a framework for drought risk assessment in Taiwan. In order to complete this step, well-prepared input data including satellite images (possibly Formosat 5, Landsat 8, Sentinel 2, or MODIS), meteorological stations data (rainfall, temperature, soil moisture), and statistical data (social, economic, policy, environmental…) is very essential. Field trips are also required to investigate and evaluate the drought status. In the second year (August 1st, 2022-July 31st, 2023), with the obtained results from the first year, the drought risk in Taiwan will be assessed. In this stage, the required specific tasks include the selection and calculation of particular indicators for the three main components. The weight of each indicator and drought risk classification will be determined by Analytic network process (ANP) and Multilayer perceptron neural network (MLPNN) methods. Hazard, exposure, and vulnerability maps will be produced. In the third year (August 1st, 2023-July 31st, 2024), the drought risk map will be generated. It is expected to serve as a scientific basis to assist the decision for the reference of authorities. Finally, the project will be completed with synthetic reports, conference presentations, scientific articles, and proposed plans. The project outcomes are expected to improve the adaptation and mitigation strategies in response to the risks resulting from drought in the social, environmental, and economic dimensions of concern towards drought resilient societies adapt to changing climate conditions.