台灣土地永續發展目標評估之跨領域模式建立(II)

Land is a vital resource. Improper or excessive use as well as droughts orerosion have caused land degradation. Due to increasing global population,damaging extreme weather events, westernizing dietary habit, non-decreasingfood loss and waste, food shortage is very likely to occur in the near future.However, changing natural land into agricultural use may not only intensify landdegradation, but also increase greenhouse gas emissions. Taiwan is highlydependent on imports for food, so food security is critical. Moreover, net-zeroemission is set as one of the goals in Law of Response to Climate Change.Therefore, it is necessary to develop an interdisciplinary model to address properland use under the goal of achieving net-zero emissions and food security. Thepurpose of this study is to establish a systematic approach to support decisionsof sustainable land resource utilization and agriculture and livestock production.The project results of 2020 are: including stakeholders in building prototype ofLand and Nutrient, Emission, Trade (LandNET) model, as well as collecting datato validate the prototype of the model, followed by the proposed two-yearproposal below. In 2021, the socioeconomic scenarios related to land-usechange are established, and more evidence-based data (compare to 2020’sproject) will be used to validate and modify the model to improve the accuracyand convergence of the model. In the next year 2021, the climate scenariosrelated to land-use change are built up. Then, the socioeconomic and climatescenarios are included to strengthen the capability of the model, followed bysensitivity analysis. The results are further compared to a parallel study includingthe results of other countries. The expected results of this project is to build upLandNET model, to analyze the effects of changed land uses under differentclimate, social, and economic scenarios on the three aspects of LandNET toassist land-use decision-making. Through the integration of natural sciences and social sciences, climate change mitigation and adjustment, and opinions fromresearcher and stakeholders, the co-designed, co-produced, co-delivered modelprovide comprehensive implications to sustainable development of land andagriculture. In addition, the results of the study also contribute to the sustainabledevelopment goals of Taiwan on greenhouse gas reduction, national land plans,sustainable land use, food security and sustainable food production systems.